Ukunyuka kwenzala kweFederal Reserve “kuyekile kwaye akuzange kuyeke”, imakethi iza kuya phi ngexesha lokungabikho kwexesha?

Ngeeyure zasekuseni zanamhlanje, iFederal Reserve ibhengeze ukumiswa kokunyuka kwenzala, nto leyo egcina uluhlu olujoliswe kulo lwezinga lemali karhulumente lungatshintshanga kwi-5.0% ukuya kwi-5.25%. Oku kuhlalutywe kwangaphambili.
(Ukuze ufunde okungakumbi ngempembelelo yeemveliso ezithile zentsimbi, ezifanaUhlobo lweNqwaba yePhepha 4, ungazive ukhululekile ukunxibelelana nathi)
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba intlanganiso yezinga lenzala yeFederal Reserve ityhile ukuba ngeli xesha kukunyuka kwezinga "lokumiswa", kungekhona ukunyuka kwezinga "lokuyeka". Kulindeleke ukuba kubekho ukunyuka kwezinga lenzala kabini ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka. Kwaye uPowell ukwathe kwintlanganiso ukuba bekungayi kuba yinto engafanelekanga ukunciphisa amazinga enzala kulo nyaka, kwaye akukho mntu phakathi kwamalungu eFOMC oqikelele ukuncitshiswa kwezinga ngo-2023. Oku kuthetha ukuba iFed ayiyekanga ukunyusa amazinga enzala, kwaye amathuba okunciphisa amazinga enzala kwiFed kulo nyaka nawo aye abuthathaka kakhulu.
Ukucotha kwe-Fed ekunyuseni amazinga enzala ngeli xesha kunceda ekuzinzeni kwamaxabiso eemveliso, kodwa kusekho ithuba lokunyusa amazinga enzala kwixesha elizayo, kwaye imakethi isaza kuvuselela ukuphelelwa lithemba kwangaphambili. Iimpahla zamazwe ngamazwe zisekwixesha lokwethuka.
(Ukuba ufuna ukwazi okungakumbi ngeendaba zoshishino kwiUbungakanani beeNqwaba zePhepha leNsimbi, ungaqhagamshelana nathi nangaliphi na ixesha)
Ngokwembono yemarike yasekhaya, i-National Bureau of Statistics ikhuphe idatha yezoqoqosho zasekhaya ngoMeyi namhlanje. Phakathi kwazo, ixabiso elongezelelweyo lamashishini emizi-mveliso elingaphezulu kobukhulu obumiselweyo, utyalo-mali lwe-asethi ezizinzileyo zesizwe, utyalo-mali lwezindlu kunye nezinye izalathisi ezinxulumene kakhulu neshishini lentsimbi zonke ziye zehla. Oku kubonisa ukuba imfuno yemarike yentsimbi ngoMeyi ibibuthathaka. Nangona kunjalo, okukhona ukusebenza kwedatha kubi, kokukhona imfuno yemarike kunye nolindelo lokuba ilizwe liqalise imigaqo-nkqubo yokukhuthaza enamandla ngakumbi kwinqanaba elizayo.
(Ukuba ufuna ukufumana ixabiso leemveliso ezithile zentsimbi, ezifanaUhlobo lwe-4 Sheet Pileungaqhagamshelana nathi ukuze ufumane isaphulelo nangaliphi na ixesha)
Ukongeza, imveliso yentsimbi, ebikwinqanaba eliphezulu, ekugqibeleni iye yehla. Ngokwedatha evela kwi-National Bureau of Statistics, ngoMeyi, imveliso yentsimbi ekrwada yelizwe lam yayiyi-90.12 yezigidi zeetoni, ukwehla kwe-7.3% unyaka nonyaka; imveliso yemihla ngemihla yesizwe yentsimbi ekrwada ngoMeyi yayiyi-2.907 yezigidi zeetoni, ukwehla kwenyanga nenyanga kwe-5.9%.

Kodwa kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba imfuno yangoku iye yangena kancinci kancinci kwixesha lokuphumla, kwaye amaqondo obushushu aphezulu emantla kunye nemozulu enemvula emazantsi ziyanda kancinci kancinci, nto leyo eya kuthintela kakhulu ukwakhiwa kwangaphandle. Ke ngoko, umkhwa wemfuno ebuthathaka kwixesha lokuphumla kunzima ukuwutshintsha, kwaye imfuno iyonke yemarike iya kuba kumdlalo "wolindelo oluqinileyo" kunye "nemfuno ebuthathaka".
Ngokwembono yemarike, emva kokungena kukaJuni, ixabiso lentsimbi liye laphinda landa ngokucacileyo, kwaye imarike iyonke inika imarike "engebuthathaka ngexesha lokungabikho kwexesha".
Kwixesha elifutshane, idatha eyahlukeneyo yelizwe ngokubanzi ayikabi nathemba, kodwa uthotho lwemigaqo-nkqubo engeniswe kutshanje izise ithemba kwimarike. Imarike inokhuphiswano olukhulu phakathi kwexesha elide nelifutshane, kwaye umdlalo wexesha elifutshane awukafikeleli kwimpumelelo. Amaxabiso entsimbi asekwixesha lokuguquguquka okukhulu.